On Wednesday, the market fluctuated throughout the day but still failed to break out, with limited volatility. The small-scale patterns have been pulling for a long time without any clear signals appearing. However, if we zoom out to the weekly chart, it is not difficult to find that BTC has shown a stage top signal after reaching a new high, and has since been in a weak consolidation. If a strong bullish reversal does not occur this week, there is a high likelihood that the dip will continue next week. In the auxiliary indicators, MACD is currently showing a high-level divergence, and once a death cross appears, the downward momentum will be unleashed, making it very difficult for long positions to regain confidence. Although indicators are only for reference, they are very instructive in the context of larger patterns. The previous bull run ended with a death cross following severe divergence. In the daily chart, the candlestick has formed a bearish candle with a lower wick. This superficially indicates that buyers have entered after yesterday's decline, but at the same time, there is a strong atmosphere of market hesitation, with neither bulls nor bears able to make a decision. The strength of the rebound is also limited, and the short-term continuation is poor. Currently, the market is basically in a phase of fluctuating adjustment before a conversion. In terms of operations, we maintain the previous thought process; as long as 116000 cannot be broken and held above, we continue to hold a bearish outlook.

Ethereum, after touching the 3940 line last week, ultimately failed to break through the 4000 mark and fell back significantly. Although there was a short-term rebound correction, the extreme shrinkage in trading volume led to a divergence between volume and price, limiting the upward momentum. If trading volume continues to remain low, it may trigger a new round of dips. In the 4-hour chart, the MACD volume bars are gradually shrinking, and the fast and slow lines are consistently running below the zero axis, showing no strong rebound signals. Market sentiment is also relatively flat, and the positive signals of institutions increasing their Bitcoin holdings are offset by regulatory pressures. The current market lacks strong driving forces and is unlikely to form a breakthrough in the short term. Therefore, in terms of strategy, one can refer to high selling and low buying operations in a range-bound market.
In the early hours of Wednesday, Bitcoin continues to reference 115500-116000 as a resistance area to short first, with the lower target looking at the 113000-113300 area. Ethereum continues to reference 3700-3730 as a resistance area to short on the rise, with the lower target looking near 3560, followed by around 3450. If the pullback cannot effectively break down, consider entering long positions.
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