XRP crypto news: ETF approval probability skyrockets to 95%, October may witness a milestone in the crypto market.

Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas on June 24 raised the probability of the XRP spot ETF being approved in 2025 from 85% to 95%.

This adjustment follows the positive feedback from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on the filing documents, conveying a strong signal of regulatory optimism. Also seeing an increase in probability are Solana and Litecoin, both expected to have approval rates of 90% to 95%.

##Institutional Consensus: 95% High Probability Behind Regulatory and Technical Support The market's expectation for the approval of the XRP ETF is not unfounded. Data from the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket shows that traders are betting on a 90% probability that the XRP ETF will be approved within the year, with the trading amount of related contracts exceeding $95,000, indicating strong market confidence.

The core of the SEC's shift in attitude lies in the reclassification of the asset attributes of XRP. The regulator has recently leaned towards categorizing it as a "commodity" rather than a "security," a key qualitative change that significantly reduces compliance barriers.

And the existing futures products regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for XRP further pave the way for ETF approvals. The Canadian market has taken the lead in verifying this trend. In early 2025, the asset management company 3iQ launched the "zero management fee" XRP ETF on the Toronto Stock Exchange, providing a successful precedent for the United States.

Politics and Technology: The Dual Engine of White House Support and the Ripple Ecosystem

Political power is becoming an accelerator for XRP. On March 2, 2025, U.S. President Trump announced through Truth Social the inclusion of XRP in the U.S. crypto strategic reserve, driving its price to soar 30% in a single day, reaching $2.60.

The Trump administration publicly praised cryptocurrency for "creating jobs" and "alleviating pressure on the dollar," and its team profited more than $620 million from crypto projects, indicating a clear intention in policy bias.

Ripple Company is synchronously advancing key layouts:

• Bank License Application: In early July 2025, submit a national bank charter application to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to seek compliance operations under the federal regulatory framework;
• Technical Upgrade: On June 30, the XRPL EVM sidechain mainnet went live, achieving cross-chain interoperability with over 80 blockchains and significantly expanding ecological application scenarios;
• Stablecoin Layout: Collaborating with OpenPayd to promote the RLUSD stablecoin, strengthening fiat channels.

##Market Reaction: Institutional Entry Signals in Volatility XRP price shows high volatility in the first half of 2025:

• In January, stimulated by Trump's election as president, it surged to $3.20;
• Dropped to $1.79 from April to June due to geopolitical conflicts;
• Stabilized at $2.19 on July 3.

This volatility has not hindered institutional progress. The first XRP leveraged fund (XRPP) in the United States attracted $50 million in inflows in its first week after launching in March, indicating a strong demand from mature investors for compliant exposure.

##Final Challenge: The Game of Timelines and Regulatory Procedures Despite the prevailing optimism, the SEC's approval process still holds uncertainties:

• Final resolution date set for October 17: ETF applications submitted in January 2025 must be adjudicated by this date;
• Delay risk: The SEC has initiated an additional 35-day public comment period for the XRP and Solana ETF;
• Competitive Pressure: Solana staking ETF has been approved ahead of others, offering a 20% annualized return, forcing XRP product innovation.

The application for Ripple's banking license is strategically significant, but the process is complex and the outcome is uncertain. The SEC's reversals in the approval of Grayscale's fund conversion (first approving and then suspending on the same day) also remind the market that uncertainty in regulatory enforcement still needs to be taken seriously.

Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart emphasized in a subsequent statement: "The current question is no longer 'whether it will be approved', but 'when it will be approved'.” If the SEC gives the green light before October 17, XRP will become the fourth cryptocurrency to enter the mainstream financial system, following Bitcoin, Ethereum, and SOL, opening the floodgates for altcoin ETFs.

The boundary between the crypto world and Wall Street is about to be completely shattered at this moment.

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