Time has unknowingly passed for four years, and the account has slowly made a bit of money. Compared to the last bull run, this time, in addition to gaining a decent profit, I have also gained 18,000 frens who follow this account. Thank you for your recognition; it has given me great encouragement spiritually. In a situation where my main business is not going smoothly, these small written updates have become an excellent space for me to have an inner dialogue with myself. This emotional solace cannot be bought with money.

In the past year, due to health reasons, the frequency of writing short essays has decreased significantly compared to before. From the comments section, it seems that most of the frens who were active in the dynamics from 2021 to 2023 have left the crypto circle. Now, most of those who remain are the veterans from 2021 and the enlightened newcomers from back then. I don't know if you've made any money, but I believe that in just these few short years, your growth and gains must be considerable.
Many frens we haven't chatted, may rarely like or comment. I suggest everyone to take this step, share more of your situation. The good can let everyone learn, and the bad can make everyone vigilant. Be more proactive, it will really bring you unexpected surprises in your journey of holding tokens.
In our dynamics, there are actually a lot of highlights in the comments section, not just the content of the main article. Most of the comments are my replies to questions, and there are also many discussions and exchanges among friends in the crypto space, providing mutual encouragement and tips. This aspect may be quite rare in the dynamics on Gate.io. This small dynamic needs to be maintained, and I hope you will also bravely take this step. Talking more is not a bad thing; if I have time, I usually reply.
I woke up this morning and checked the comments section. Some new frens are unable to clearly see the current market trends, and they worry about a significant pullback with just a slight drop. This is an ingrained way of thinking developed during the manipulation by the big players. This situation is not new; looking back at the market from May to late October last year, and from January to mid-April this year, sideways fluctuations are the norm in the crypto world, which occupies at least 70% of the time in a year. I shared in a previous article that market trends can be divided into three categories: downtrend, uptrend, and consolidation trend.
Most of the time, it is in a consolidation trend, consolidating after an increase, consolidating after a decrease, and continuously consolidating to choose a direction.
If you want to survive in the crypto space for a long time, you must accept this fundamental fact: don't always think that buying spot will lead to a rise, and that selling will lead to a drop. What we really need to learn is to gradually learn to judge through daily candlestick charts, how to find clues from the consolidation trend after a wave of upward or downward trends, determine who is strong and who is weak, then choose a side, plan ahead, and act in accordance with the trend. To elaborate further, this theory is also suitable for friends who play medium to long-term low-leverage positions.
You can only identify the strength of both bulls and bears in a consolidation trend to determine whether the price will continue to rise or if the upward movement has ended and a decline is coming. It's not about going with your gut; when you see ETH suddenly rise from 1400 to 2600, you shouldn't assume the rebound is over and sell your spot holdings to short in contracts. If you can discern what happened during this consolidation period, you are very likely to avoid making mistakes. This ability is crucial and depends on whether you can buy at relatively low points and sell at relatively high points.
The current situation is still very healthy, BTC is consolidating at high levels and building strength, whether in the daily K-line pattern or the three-day K-line pattern, it is still in an upward trend. The current price is only 7% away from the previous high. Considering the known macroeconomic information, I really can't think of any major negative news in the short term. If I must make a prediction, I personally believe that breaking through new highs in the short term is very likely.
In addition, the auxiliary indicators show that ETH/BTC has already reached a turning point, and the BTC.D index has also started to turn downwards, indicating that ETH's rebound this time will be strong. If BTC can successfully reach a new high before June, then ETH reaching the price of 3000 is just around the corner. Will it continue to rise? The probability should not be very high. If both of these values appear, it means there will be new stories to promote, and a new high-level fluctuation range will emerge, but the volatility will be even more intense than before.
Take a moment to reflect, have you noticed that when it hit 74000, a lot of media messages said the bull run was over, and BTC would drop to 69000 or even below 50000? Coupled with the assistance of Trump, it made the already chaotic market even more confusing. 80% of people were still losing money, but surely some people made a profit, acquiring a large number of low-priced chips and U. Think about who those people are? Now most things have become clear, with a bunch of KOLs predicting that BTC will exceed 200K or even 500K. The Wall Street traders have plenty of these tricks to operate. As a spot player, as long as the chips in hand are valuable, hold them steady; in the end, you will really outperform 80% of the players in the market.
Buy in fear and sell in greed, everyone knows this saying, but very few can actually do it. Just like a fren commented in the discussion area, years have passed, and even though I have foreseen the outcome, I still cannot make a profit. The core issue here is human nature. Any market that deals with money on a daily basis, whether it's stocks, funds, or the crypto space, even casinos, the underlying logic is a struggle with human nature, where the big fish use human nature to dominate the small fish.
Everyone knows that institutional cattle are difficult to play, so we must have more patience and courage in this round. At present, there has been no interest rate cut and QE in the 25-year cycle, and the new liquidity of hot money in the market has not been released, even if the interest rate is cut, it will not be directly pulled, at most the key factor of the mad bull pull up has been achieved, and the market maker will definitely operate according to the actual position data of retail investors. Perhaps you also need to understand the fact that why this round of bulls has not yet been rampant, because the contract trading volume of the mainstream currencies in the market has been several times more than the spot trading volume, and the Air Force does not need a bull market, as long as there are fluctuations, it can be done, and when the fuel in the market is almost harvested, the turning point of the market will really come. Even if the final top of this bull market is only 11-120,000, there will be no problem with BTC for 10 years, but we all say that we firmly believe in BTC on the surface, but in private we are calculating our own altcoins.
Some friends asked me why it would be relatively accurate to judge the trend, in fact, this skill is not difficult, as if the dynamics of the previous year talked about this problem, and today I will talk to you about it concretely. First of all, you need to use the computer to look at the K-line, look at the 1-day line, 3-day line, take the 1-day line as an example, you only need to look at three reference indicators in the main interface, the first is the volume, the second is the MA line, and the parameter settings are selected 30, 200 two line segments. The third is the EMA line, which sets the parameters to 144, 169, and 200 line segments. The lower auxiliary indicators only select MACD, RSI, these two indicator parameters do not need to be adjusted, and the last KDJ, adjust the indicator parameters to 34, 5, 10. Then you go and review the BTC daily level trend in the past 8 years, pay attention to some indicator values and signals that appear at the top and bottom, and I believe you will also see some doorways.
Of course, these are just some of my personal methods, which are simple advanced techniques based on trading fundamentals, and may not be suitable for everyone. If you're interested, you still need to study it carefully yourself. Don't be afraid to make mistakes; taking the first step is indeed very important ☕