Is the Market Delusional? Dr. Cat: BTC Only Needs to Make One Wrong Step to Collapse

Cryptocurrency analyst Dr.Cat (@DoctorCatX) has issued a high-risk warning regarding the trajectory of Bitcoin, suggesting that the market is currently at a critical technical crossroads. In a detailed post on X, Dr. Cat challenged the widespread optimism surrounding the typical pullback to $90,000, dismissing the notion as "a fairy tale" unsupported by multi-timeframe Ichimoku data. The Bitcoin Dream of 90,000 USD is a "Fairy Tale" "To clarify further," the analyst wrote, "the idea of calmly dropping to 90K and continuing the daily upward trend sounds like a fairy tale to me." According to Dr. Cat, such a move would require Bitcoin to break through no fewer than four key support levels on higher time frames, something he considers "too unrealistic that... [it] might only appear in the dreams of someone waiting for these price levels." Instead, Dr. Cat identifies a narrow window of "imbalance" on the daily, 2-day, and 3-day Ichimoku indicators—most notably between $102,600 and $106,300—that remains untapped. "These are waiting for a bit," he notes, pointing out the Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen levels as important balance markers.

The weekly Chikou Span ( lagging ), an important indicator in Ichimoku theory, is currently above the previous candle close—historically a bullish condition indicating that Bitcoin is still in a strong upward trend unless it closes below those support levels. Dr. Cat has charted these historical support levels using the 26-period look-back rule: around $103,600 for this week, rising to $108,300 by mid-June before dropping to $99,000 by the end of June. He emphasizes that "If CS has managed to stay above such good candles so far on the steepest past slope, it is unlikely to fall below them." However, the case for a price increase comes with a short fuse. An important technical event - the bullish TK cross on the weekly chart - is expected to occur on June 9. "But if [it] is lower than ATH, it will be false because Kijun Sen will be flat," he warns. In simple terms: unless Bitcoin creates a new all-time high immediately after the TK cross, the signal will be invalidated. On the other hand, a new ATH after the cross will confirm what Dr. Cat calls "a super clear and bullish signal: it is very, very unlikely to not be immediately followed by a strong bullish continuation." Notably, he marked the divergence between BTCUSD and BTCEUR, in which BTCEUR has shown that the Chikou Span is falling to the candlestick zone, a neutral signal to the bears. He commented: "BTCEUR... looks significantly worse than BTCUSD." "This chart is simply neutral and can go in both directions: much higher than here or as low as ~70K EUR." He attributed some of BTCUSD's current bullish trend to a weak USD, adding that mid-June will likely clarify whether this price strength is structurally solid or artificially inflated. Minimizing the monthly chart, Dr. Cat revealed his most positive forecast to date: $270,000 per BTC, based on the "4E model" of Ichimoku price theory. Although he acknowledges this as a "wild guess," he argues that the cryptocurrency market tends to challenge consensus expectations. "Many people seem to be skeptical about this bull run," he said. "And even if they expect it to continue, they mainly bet on timid/average targets. I bet on the latter target [being exceeded]." The next two to three weeks will be crucial. The failure to break the all-time high in June—combined with the weakness of the Chikou Span or the daily trend breakdown—could signal a prolonged cooldown in Q4. Until then, all eyes are on the weekly TK cross and the market's reaction.