#全球牛市有望延续# About BTC: Cycles, Present and Long-term

BTC is currently fluctuating around 110,000. After a previous surge to 124,700, it has pulled back. The collapse of altcoins has triggered panic in the bear market, which is actually quite common—those who believe in the four-year cycle become suspicious during corrections, while those who are confident in a prolonged bull market rarely dare to build positions above 100,000. In the end, they either exit or get trapped, resulting in a decreasing amount of holdings.
I still believe in the four-year cycle, not focusing on specific price levels, just waiting for the end of this cycle to say goodbye and restart. There are always "catastrophes" during the rise, and they often exceed expectations. Currently, the indicators, emotions, and instincts all suggest volatility, and I am slowly accepting the "estrangement" from BTC, broadening my investment scope.
Short-term BTC is unpredictable, but long-term it doesn't need prediction; 120,000 is by no means the end. Referencing Microsoft and Apple: since 2015, they have increased over 10 times and 6 times respectively. It is not impossible for Bitcoin to multiply 10 times to 1 million dollars in the next ten years.
Regardless of whether you invest 100,000 or 1 billion, the long-term certainty of opportunities in BTC is sufficient for individuals to rise in social class. The core is to understand its essence as the "globally unique value benchmark." I believe there is a bit of "mysticism" in cycles; each new player (from the old predecessors in 2013 to this year's ETF retail investors and institutions) must undergo market baptism. Only when everyone has experienced "death and rebirth" can Bitcoin potentially enter an ultra-long bull market like the Nasdaq. Currently, institutions are heavily chasing highs and cutting lows, and they are still far from true belief.
To avoid the peak, I will refer to indicators such as the long-term holding coin ratio and funding rates, but ultimately, it still relies on my "feelings."
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