There may be three trends tonight:



1. If Powell clearly signals a rate cut in September, it will create a favorable situation, and the market is expected to launch a counterattack, with a probability of 20%.

2. If Powell states that it is currently not suitable to cut interest rates, but vaguely hints at a tendency to lower rates, it also constitutes a positive signal, with a probability of 50%.

3. If Powell completely does not release any expectations for interest rate cuts and even adopts a more hawkish stance, the market may drop again, with a probability of 30%.

After rational analysis, it is recommended to wait and see. For spot trading, consider averaging down in batches, while for contracts, only take spike orders and wait for the situation to reverse.
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