ETH/USD: Short-Term Bullish Reversal Trade Plan

* Asset: Ethereum (ETH/USD)
* Current Price: ~$4343
* Strategy: Buy the dip at a key support level (Bullish Reversal).
* Timeframe: 4-Hour / Daily
* Risk Level: Medium

1. Executive Summary (The Trade Thesis)

The core idea is to enter a long position on ETH after it dips into the strong support zone between $4300 and $4320. We are anticipating that buyers will defend this level, leading to a bounce. The trade is supported by underlying bullish momentum shown by the MACD indicator, despite the short-term price decline. Our primary target is the significant resistance level near $4440.

2. Core Technical Analysis (The "Why")

* Key Support Zone ($4300 - $4320): This area represents a strong psychological level and a zone of previous price interaction. Dips to this level are likely to attract buying interest.

* Key Resistance Zone ($4440 - $4450): The price is currently below the 20-period moving average (Bollinger Band middle band), which sits at ~$4446. This level, which was previously support, now acts as the first major resistance ceiling that the price must overcome.

* Bullish Momentum Signal (MACD): The MACD indicator has recently formed a "golden cross" (DIF line crossing above the DEA line) and the histogram is positive. This suggests that even though the price is falling, the underlying momentum is starting to shift in favor of the bulls.

* Room for Growth (RSI): The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in neutral territory, not overbought. This indicates that if a rally begins, there is ample room for the price to move upwards before the market is considered overheated.

3. Actionable Trade Parameters (The "How")
To execute this trade, we will not buy blindly. We will wait for a specific confirmation signal.

* Entry Trigger

* Wait for the price to enter the $4300 - $4320 support zone.

* AND

* Wait for a bullish reversal candlestick pattern to form on the 4-hour chart (e.g., a Hammer, a Bullish Engulfing candle, or a strong green candle after a Doji). This confirms that buyers are stepping in.

* Entry Price: Aim for an entry around $4315 upon confirmation.

* Stop-Loss: Place a firm stop-loss at $4245.

* Rationale: This places your exit point below the key psychological $4250 level and the entire support zone, protecting against minor volatility and "stop hunting" price wicks.

* Targets
:
* Target 1 (T1): $4390

* Rationale: A conservative profit target just below the $4400 psychological barrier. This is a high-probability area to take initial profits.

* Target 2 (T2): $4440

* Rationale: The primary resistance level defined by the Bollinger Band middle band. A strong rejection is possible here.

4. Risk and Position Management

A solid plan is not just about entry and exit; it's about managing risk.

* Risk per Trade: The distance between your entry ($4315) and stop-loss ($4245) is $70.
* Position Sizing: Only risk a small, predefined percentage of your trading capital (e.g., 1-2%).
* Example: With a $10,000 account risking 1% ($100), you would trade $100 / $70 \approx 1.42 ETH.

* Trade Management Plan:
* When Target 1 ($4390) is hit, sell 50% of your position to lock in profit.
* Simultaneously, move your stop-loss on the remaining 50% to your entry price ($4315).
* This action makes the rest of the trade risk-free, allowing you to aim for Target 2 without fear of losing capital.

5. Invalidation Condition

This trade idea is considered invalidated if the ETH price breaks down and closes a 4-hour candle below $4280 before your entry trigger occurs. A strong break of the support zone indicates that sellers are in full control, and looking for a long position would be unwise.

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