A Comparative Analysis of the NFT Market Recovery and the Trendy Toy Bubble

Recently, Labubu dolls have skyrocketed in price in the trendy toy market, reminiscent of the frenzy surrounding Bearbrick a few years ago. However, most of the popular Bearbrick styles have now seen their prices halved and are in a state of being unsellable. This situation stands in stark contrast to the current recovery of the NFT market.

Since the bubble burst in 2022, the NFT market has seen a strong recovery for the first time, with trading volume increasing by 78% against the trend, reaching 14.9 million transactions. This phenomenon has sparked thoughts: Are we witnessing the formation of another bubble, or is the market undergoing a structural transformation from "high price and low trading" to "inclusive participation"? Is the driving force behind this the resonance effect created by institutional funds re-entering and retail users returning?

The Cycle of Trendy Toys and the Differentiation of the NFT Market

The rise and fall of the潮玩 market reveals a cruel truth: a value system built solely on scarcity marketing and celebrity effects is extremely fragile. The price of the Bearbrick has plummeted from a million for a single piece to half that, in stark contrast to the current frenzy surrounding Labubu, confirming the iron law that "financial bubbles never burst before they burst."

However, the recovery trajectory of the NFT market during the same period shows different characteristics. Data indicates that although the overall trading volume of the industry remains at a relatively low level of $887 million, the market structure is undergoing profound changes. Blue-chip NFTs such as CryptoPunks and BAYC have maintained their leading positions, with the floor price of CryptoPunks rising by 53% in July, exceeding 47.5 ETH (approximately $180,000). Meanwhile, the trading volume of real-world asset (RWA) NFTs increased by 29% month-on-month, with the Courtyard platform jumping to the second position in the industry.

This differentiation reflects the market's insistence on the value of scarcity on one hand, and on the other hand, it also indicates the broad prospects of practical NFTs. Unlike the simple speculation in the trendy toy market, the value foundation of NFTs is undergoing a qualitative change. Blockchain technology gives NFTs immutability and the ability to prove ownership, thus breaking through the physical limitations of traditional trendy toys.

Reconstruction of Scarcity Narrative: From Blind Box Marketing to Blockchain Rights Confirmation

Trendy toys and NFTs both understand the value of scarcity, but the ways they create scarcity are completely different. Block Bear adopts a "blind box plus hunger marketing" model, artificially creating scarcity through limited releases and lottery purchases, which is similar to the blind box mechanism during the historical tulip mania.

In contrast, the scarcity of NFTs is built on the mathematical foundation of blockchain. Each NFT has a unique token ID and metadata, and its scarcity is enforced by code, relying not on the marketing rhetoric of the issuer. Taking CryptoPunks as an example, the scarcity of 10,000 unique pixel avatars is written into the smart contract, and the issuer cannot change it. This technology-backed scarcity is far more credible than the "limited edition promise" of trendy toy manufacturers.

The value logic of digital assets is being reshaped by the scarcity empowered by this technology. While the trend toy market is still debating whether "plastic dolls are worth millions," NFTs have already achieved automatic value distribution and circulation through smart contracts. BAYC is not just a digital avatar, but also a symbol of identity and a community passport. Holders can gain access to exclusive events and business collaboration opportunities, which is an added value that traditional trend toys find hard to reach.

Data shows that the average holding period for the BAYC series NFTs exceeds 18 months, which is much longer than the hype cycle of trendy toys. This indicates that the NFT market is forming a more stable value consensus rather than purely speculative behavior.

From Collection to Application: The Awakening of NFT Practical Value

The loneliness of the Block Bear stands in stark contrast to the rise of NFTs, with the core difference lying in the presence or absence of practical value. The Block Bear attempts to gain cultural value through collaborations with artists, but its physical attributes limit the expansion of application scenarios, allowing it to only serve as a decorative item or collectible. In contrast, NFTs are programmable and versatile, capable of carrying various roles such as digital tickets, proof of copyright, financial derivatives, and more, making their presence felt across various economic fields.

The explosive growth of RWANFT with a month-on-month increase of 29% reflects this trend. Platforms like Courtyard are bringing real assets such as real estate and artworks onto the blockchain, making NFTs a powerful complement to the traditional financial system, a practical value that cannot be compared to trendy collectibles.

Blockchain technology has also solved the circulation problems of the traditional trendy toy market. While Block Bears still rely on offline trendy toy stores and second-hand platforms for trading, NFTs can be seamlessly transferred between any digital wallets globally, significantly reducing transaction costs. Data shows that from 2022 to 2025, the average transaction time in the NFT secondary market has decreased from 48 hours to 15 minutes, and the increase in liquidity makes NFTs more attractive as financial assets.

The cross-platform characteristics of NFTs are also crucial, as they can be applied in multiple scenarios such as the metaverse, gaming, and social interactions, creating a network effect of value, which stands in stark contrast to the limited value display of Jigsaw Bears in physical spaces.

Bubbles and Opportunities: Future Prospects of the NFT Market

Despite the recovery of the NFT market, many people are still concerned that it will repeat the mistakes of the designer toy bubble. This concern is not unfounded, as the rapid rise in asset prices in history is often accompanied by speculative behavior. However, equating NFTs directly with the designer toy bubble overlooks the essential differences between NFTs in terms of technological innovation and application expansion.

When Labubu is speculated to millions, its intrinsic value has not changed. The rise in NFT prices is often accompanied by the expansion of application scenarios and the improvement of infrastructure. From Ethereum to Solana, from ERC-721 to ERC-1155, the technical ecosystem of NFTs is maturing, laying a solid foundation for their value growth.

In the future, the differentiation of the NFT market may further intensify. Pure digital artworks will continue to rely on scarcity narratives, while utility NFTs are expected to find broader application space in finance, supply chain, copyright, and other fields. Data shows that by the second quarter of 2025, the transaction volume of utility NFTs accounted for 38%, an increase of 12 percentage points compared to the same period last year, indicating that NFTs are shifting from speculative tools to practical tools.

Although this transformation process may be filled with fluctuations, the overall direction of technological advancement is irreversible. Just as LEGO opened up a billion-dollar market through the adultification of toys, NFTs are also redefining the boundaries of digital assets. It may not be a tulip-like bubble, but rather a new species in the era of the digital economy.

The Division of Value Logic: From Physical Scarcity to Code Trust

There is an essential difference between the value anchors of trendy toys and NFTs. The Bearbrick creates scarcity through limited releases, and a 1000% size model can be priced at a million, but this scarcity relies on the credibility of a centralized brand. Once market sentiment reverses, prices can plummet. In contrast, the scarcity of NFTs is enforced by code. On-chain data shows that NFTs held for more than 18 months account for as much as 63%, far exceeding the average holding period of 3 months for trendy toys, reflecting the market's confidence in the value of NFTs.

The shift in the paradigm of the creator economy is particularly evident in the comparison between the two. Designer toy creators have limited earnings after initial revenue sharing, while NFT creators can continuously earn royalties through smart contracts. Data shows that the average permanent revenue share for top NFT project creators can reach 7.5% of sales. This mechanism has attracted artists like Takashi Murakami, whose collaboration with RTFKT on the CloneX series has generated $12 million in royalty revenue alone.

The differences in value capture methods are also worth noting. NFTs leverage DAOs (Decentralized Autonomous Organizations) to allow community participation in decision-making, such as BAYC holders voting on the direction of IP licensing. In contrast, the decision-making of trendy toy brands is completely centralized, and consumers can only passively accept price adjustments. This makes the cohesion of the NFT community far exceed that of traditional trendy toy fan groups.

The risk resistance capability of both is determined by the differentiation of financial attributes. After the bubble burst in the trendy toy market, it usually leads to a collapse in prices across all categories, such as the transaction prices of most Bearbricks halving. Meanwhile, the NFT market shows structural differentiation, with blue-chip NFTs and RWANFTs growing simultaneously in the second quarter of 2025. Top projects like CryptoPunks belong to the former, while the real estate NFTs on the Courtyard platform belong to the latter, with a month-on-month trading volume increase of 29%. NFTs have financial instrument attributes, allowing for risk diversification through methods like collateralized lending and fragmented trading, whereas trendy toys lack this financial infrastructure and can only rely on secondary market speculation.

Future Evolution: From Speculative Tool to Infrastructure

The development paths of NFTs and trendy toys are accelerating in differentiation. The trendy toy market has failed to break through the traditional cycle of "design-production-speculation," and its digitalization attempts are limited to offline scanning to receive digital collectibles, which does not address the essential issues. In contrast, NFTs have entered a period of "practical explosion." Data from 2025 shows that the trading volume of practical NFTs (such as gaming items and identity credentials) accounts for 41%, surpassing digital artworks for the first time. The maturity of blockchain infrastructure allows developers to easily build multi-chain applications, and traditional financial assets can seamlessly integrate into the Web3 ecosystem.

This differentiation may be exacerbated by the differences in regulatory adaptability. The collectible toy market lacks a transparent pricing mechanism and is often accused of money laundering risks. In contrast, the on-chain traceability of NFTs makes it easier to meet compliance requirements, attracting traditional institutions to enter the market. In July 2025, several traditional financial institutions announced the launch of NFT-based asset tokenization services, marking the beginning of NFTs accommodating traditional financial traffic. In comparison, the collectible toy industry is limited by physical attributes, making cross-border transactions inconvenient and tax processing complex, while the on-chain world of NFTs has automatically resolved these structural barriers through smart contracts.

Ultimately, the iteration of value carriers becomes the essence of competition between the two. Trendy toys, as physical goods, are limited in value by material costs, storage logistics, and display space. In contrast, NFTs, as coded assets, can be infinitely replicated and distributed, with smart contracts automatically executing rights. The zero marginal cost allows them to carry more forms of value. Data confirms this trend: the total market value of NFTs will reach $10.4 billion in 2025 (a year-on-year growth of 63%), while the global trendy toy market size is only $6.8 billion (a year-on-year growth of 12%).

NFT technology continuously lowers the barriers to creation, trading, and usage, leading to more real-world assets being tokenized on the blockchain. If trendy toys do not accelerate their digital transformation, they will face the risk of being marginalized. In an era where code can define value, the narrative of plastic dolls' scarcity will ultimately be defeated by the mathematical trust of the blockchain.