Analysis of Key Factors in the Crypto Assets Market: Short-term Trend Analysis

Recently, financial institution analysts conducted in-depth research on potential influencing factors of the Crypto Assets market in the coming months. They pointed out that various factors such as seasonal trends, monetary policy adjustments, and technological upgrades could have a significant impact on the market.

October may welcome a positive market trend

Historical data shows that October is usually a good month for the Crypto Assets market. Over 70% of Octobers have seen Bitcoin achieve positive returns. This phenomenon, known as "Uptober", may influence investor sentiment and lead to a stronger Bitcoin price this October. However, analysts also remind that past performance does not completely predict future trends.

The impact of monetary policy is still to be observed

Despite the recent interest rate cuts, the overall cryptocurrency market has not shown the expected significant rebound. Data shows that the correlation between the total market value of Crypto Assets and the benchmark interest rate remains weak, at only 0.46. Analysts believe that the market may need more sustained stability to make a clear directional adjustment.

Due to the late emergence of Crypto Assets, there is a lack of sufficient historical data to predict their response to interest rate cycles. Analysts point out that the stability of interest rates may be more beneficial for the crypto market compared to low interest rates.

ETF Options or Deepen Market Liquidity

The approval of spot Bitcoin ETF options trading is seen as another potential catalyst. Analysts expect that this could increase market liquidity and attract more new participants. The introduction of options provides investors with a more flexible way to interact with ETFs, which is expected to drive liquidity in the underlying assets. This development could trigger a positive feedback loop, improve market structure, and facilitate institutional investors' entry into the digital asset space.

The Long-term Impact of Ethereum Upgrades

The upcoming Ethereum "Pectra" upgrade is attracting significant attention. This upgrade will implement over 30 improvement proposals aimed at enhancing network efficiency, optimizing validator operations, and expanding account abstraction capabilities. Analysts believe that Pectra is primarily structurally significant and may improve Ethereum's operational efficiency and popularity in the long term, but may not trigger a substantial price increase in the short term.

The market is in a wait-and-see stage

Overall, the Crypto Assets market seems to be in a wait-and-see phase, awaiting clearer macroeconomic or structural catalysts to drive sustained growth. Analysts point out that the sensitivity of the Crypto Assets ecosystem to macro factors is increasing, and the market is waiting for the next important catalyst to drive development, enhance retail participation, and thereby bring long-term growth to the ecosystem.

Despite the many potential favorable factors, investors still need to cautiously assess risks and make informed investment decisions. The market is constantly changing, and it is crucial to stay updated on industry trends.