#BTC行情分析# The Federal Reserve (FED) does not cut interest rates, economic clouds loom.

Bad news is here! Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman Kaplan warned that the Federal Reserve (FED) may not cut interest rates this year, as the tariff policy drags down the rate cut plan, which has been delayed repeatedly. Trump held talks with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to discuss future economic policies, but whether the "hawk" Powell's stance will soften remains unknown.
If Powell continues to be ambiguous at the interest rate meeting on June 19, hopes for a short-term rate cut will be slim. The Federal Reserve (FED) usually signals before one or two meetings prior to a rate cut, and without a clear indication, the cryptocurrency market, U.S. stocks, and even the U.S. economy may face greater pressure.
On-chain data is flashing red, top signals are emerging.
On-chain data shows that the profit and loss ratio of Bitcoin exchanges has reached 12 times, close to historical highs, suggesting that investors may start to take profits. The on-chain relative profit ratio is also approaching a high, historically topping out at similar levels multiple times. The current greed and fear index indicates that there is only 5%-10% of upside potential left, while the risk of a pullback is huge, making chasing highs a very unprofitable endeavor. Blindly chasing gains could be "picking up Gate and losing watermelons," and prudent investors should avoid increasing their positions in an extremely greedy market.