Can Dogecoin Really Reach 3.80 USD? Analysts Say Yes — If This Happens

Dogecoin's latest market structure is "significantly better than previous bull markets," according to Kevin, a crypto technical expert known on X and YouTube as @Kev_Capital_TA. In a video released on Friday, the analyst mapped Dogecoin's three historical cycles, concluding that the memecoin's current breakout and retest pattern sets the long-term Fibonacci extension at $3.80–3.90 "on the table" – provided that one key condition remains the same: Bitcoin must continue to move higher. "In two consecutive cycles, Dogecoin has tagged the fib extension level of 1.618," Kevin reminded the viewers. "We are in the third cycle... we have evidence that this has happened 100% of the time. However, that's just two data points, so it could easily not happen this time." Why $3.8 for Each Dogecoin is Feasible in This Cycle On the weekly logarithmic chart, Kevin has been tracking the first super cycle of Dogecoin—consolidation, breakout, pullback mid-cycle, blow-off top—peaking at the 1.618 extension level. The second cycle repeats the pattern, but "Elon Musk's hype on Saturday Night Live" has pushed the price well beyond the fib target into the euphoria zone. The third cycle today, he argued, seems healthier: consecutive breakouts and a retest of the bear market range have created an ascending channel of higher highs and lower lows anchored by the 200-week EMA/SMA cluster. "To me, this structure looks really good... breakout, retest of the 200 level, creating higher lows—that's textbook."

On the monthly chart, the Relative Strength Index "is just strength—continuously higher lows," is still well below the 80-90 range that capped previous cycle peaks. Kevin also marked a V-shaped curve in the monthly Stoch RSI—a signal that "will provide the momentum we need to actually have a sustainable bullish rally" when it crosses the 20 line. The Market Cipher reading over the past two weeks shows that for three years there have been increasingly strong momentum waves and capital flowing in. "This is a big deal," he said, circling each time it expands. "The momentum is building up and accumulating to a point where it's like, okay, now is the time to release it." He further stated that the Stoch RSI lines crossing each other over a two-week period historically often precedes "a strong bullish move, a breakout," implying that the period following the halving could open up the next parabolic bull run of Dogecoin. For traders focused on the nearer horizons, Kevin highlighted a macro golden pocket ranging from $0.26 to $0.285, reinforced by the daily SMA 200 at $0.27. That area covers a developing bullish flag pattern with a measured move target of $0.32–$0.33. This pattern originates from an inverse head and shoulders accumulation at $0.15, a level where he "strongly accumulated," now up about 60%.

"Consider the dominance as dominance until it is no more," he warned, noting that Bitcoin's dominance of nearly 64% continues to attract liquidity from altcoins. However, he sees "serious signs" that the dominance has created a local peak at 65.45%, opening up opportunities for rotation into larger coins such as Ethereum and, by proxy, Dogecoin. This Must Happen If Bitcoin remains stable and macro conditions—declining inflation, stable labor data, the possibility of Fed easing—continue to support, Kevin's next "main price target" is the all-time high from 2021 just below $1. A decisive break there would shift attention to the 1.618 extension of the cycle near $3.80. "I would be surprised at this point if we don't get to that level," he said, emphasizing disciplined profit-taking: "There's nothing worse than chasing a bullish momentum without taking profits." Kevin has dismissed the wild predictions of six and seven dollar prices circulating on social media but asserted that Dogecoin reaching a price of over 3 dollars is "entirely possible" if Bitcoin approaches 200,000 dollars, quantitative tightening ends, and an altcoin season explodes. Dogecoin remains "one of the most popular cryptocurrencies on the planet," an analyst comments. "When retail investors rush in, they always rush into Dogecoin." This psychological feedback loop, combined with a structurally bullish price chart and improving momentum indicators, reinforces his belief that memecoin can continue to play a pivotal role in a broader altcoin bull run. Whether the market can generate the necessary macro drivers is an unknown. But Kevin's message is not ambiguous: currently, the technical picture of Dogecoin paints a reliable roadmap to $1 and the elusive $3.80 "is possible - if Bitcoin holds firm and the macro environment remains favorable."