Based on the real-time market data of Ethereum (ETH) on May 9, 2025 (current price 2,337.35 USD, BOLL upper band 2,387.27 USD, MACD golden cross pattern continuation), along with technical indicators and volume structure, the following low long strategy is formulated.

Core Strategy and Levels
1. Buy at the support level of MA5
- Entry conditions: price retraces to 2,290-2,300 USD (MA5 dynamic support + previous high conversion level), combined with 1-hour MACD histogram contracting or RSI < 40 signal.
- Target: Bounce to $2,350-2,387 (BOLL upper band resistance), break through and look to $2,420 (Fibonacci extension level).
- Stop loss: strictly set below $2,280, risk ≤ 2%.
2. Breakout Long (Light Position)
- Entry condition: Price stabilizes at $2,387 (upper band of BOLL), confirmed breakout with a 1-hour close and trading volume > 300 million USDT.
- Target: Short-term outlook of $2,420-$2,450 (psychological barrier + weekly resistance), take profit in batches after breaking through.
- Stop loss: dynamically move up to below $2,360 to guard against false breakouts.
3. Callback Replenishment
- Replenishment condition: If the price falls back to 2,250-2,270 USD (daily EMA30 + on-chain liquidation support), a bottom divergence or KDJ oversold (J<20) appears.
- DCA target: Gradually reduce positions as the price rebounds above $2,300, while maintaining a base position to bet on the continuation of the trend.
Key Signals and Risk Control
- MACD Momentum: Current MACD bar 51.2 (bullish strength), but DIF(131.29) and DEA(80.09) divergence rate is relatively high, be cautious of short-term corrections.
- KDJ Risk: K value 83.45 (overbought), if the price peaks and then forms a death cross, the probability of a pullback increases, avoid chasing up at high positions.
- Volume verification: When breaking through $2,387, the trading volume must continue to increase (>350 million USDT), otherwise it may be a false signal.
- On-chain support: The current price of ETH is above the "realized price" of $2,100, with long-term holders accounting for 62%, and mid-term support is solid.
Position and Discipline
- Total position: ≤50%, base position 30% + flexible position 20% (rebound replenishment).
- Stop-loss discipline: Exit immediately if it falls below $2,280 or if the MACD histogram turns negative.
- Take profit strategy: Reduce position by 50% at $2,350, close position at $2,420.
Summary
ETH is currently in a strong breakout phase (2,290-2,387 USD), primarily focusing on low long positions during the day. Enter with light positions on a pullback to the MA5 support, and increase positions if it breaks the upper band. Pay attention to technical correction signals in the overbought zone, strictly implement stop-losses, and avoid blindly chasing highs during volume-less breakouts. #BTC即将创新高吗？# #加密市场反弹# #Ripple与SEC和解# #BTC# #ETH#