From Peter Thiel's Four Quadrants Perspective on Crypto "Emotional Transition": From Cypherpunk to "Standardization Pursuer"

Written by: Matti, Zee Prime Capital

Compiled by: Yangz, Techub News

I've returned with a medley of thoughts inspired by Peter Thiel. As a self-proclaimed disciple of the "Thiel School," I often examine the future through his "Bible" ("Zero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future"). Thiel's framework is highly extensible, capable of precisely dissecting viewpoints, trends, and movements. But sometimes it resembles Wittgenstein's ruler—its reliability is highly dependent on the perspective of observation—rather than a consistently clear lens. (Note: The "Wittgenstein's ruler" theory states that unless you have confidence in the ruler's reliability, if you measure a table with a ruler, you may also be measuring the ruler with the table.)

As a cryptocurrency investor, I often capture opportunities through narrative analysis. The industry is now at a turning point, and the arbitrage opportunities in the emerging technology market are about to close, which leads me to ponder: how can I discover and inspire more outstanding ideas and products?

Through the prism of Til, the timeline of the cryptocurrency industry presents an arc like this: from the early "clear optimism" of Bitcoin, to the "fuzzy optimism" in the grand vision of Web3 (where finance ultimately becomes a killer app), then to the "fuzzy pessimism" of the Memecoin casino era, and now to the "clear pessimism" of regulatory compromise. This arc starts from the ideals of cypherpunks, traverses the entrepreneurial frenzy, falls into degen culture, and ultimately moves towards standardization.

However, is this curve universal for all trends? A revolutionary idea, after partial validation, can become the hotly discussed "universal remedy"; but when it fails to meet overly high expectations, it is cast aside and ultimately returns to normalcy. As it stands, the revolution has not been fully realized, but we still (for some) completed a satisfying cycle along Gartner's technology maturity curve (hype cycle).

In the cryptocurrency space, the grand technology maturity curve can be obscured by price fluctuations. Each cycle – Bitcoin, ICOs promising a "world computer", DeFi, Memecoin, and now the integration of regulation with traditional finance (TradFi) – is like a fractal of a larger pattern. Right now, we're in the trough of disillusionment. And according to Carlotta Perez's theory of the wave of technological revolution, we are at an inflection point.

Web3 promised to achieve the profit explosion of Web2 through on-chain, decentralization, and tokenization. However, neither Web2 nor Web3 are specific "places" — they are not separate "things." As I mentioned two years ago, they should be understood more as "user preferences," and this preference is still niche today. If you always need to reference old things to explain new things, it indicates that you have not built something truly new.

The cryptocurrency industry is no longer a frontier market, but opportunities still exist in the frontier areas within this increasingly mature space. At this stage, where are the biggest opportunities? Intuitively, they will come from growth dividends or latecomer advantages.

It is worth noting that centralized exchanges (CEX), which once served as the vanguard for the popularization of cryptocurrencies, have now devolved into "conservative factions," solely focused on defending market share rather than promoting on-chain adoption. Ironically, it is these exchanges and L1 public chains that have created the most substantial returns for investors. In this fiercely competitive arena, where idealism has given way to pragmatism, the biggest winners have emerged.

So, does this mean that there are no "secrets" left to seek in the industry? I firmly believe that "secrets" still exist, and today's "secrets" are precisely the revelations of the past: how many truly innovative enterprises and networks have we built?

The low-hanging fruit has long been picked. Most projects either poorly imitate the tricks of their predecessors or repackage old elements as so-called innovations. Too many solutions aim to address non-existent needs, while others simply replicate traditional financial models on the blockchain.

Crypto is essentially an unfinished revolution that has ultimately devolved into a revisionist force. Today, it is deeply trapped in a core (perhaps false) dilemma: "Is it the right path to uphold idealism, or to succumb to the reality of 'making money'?" In other words, are you willing to sell your ideals for the price offered by the old system? After crying dry tears in the Memecoin casino, more and more revolutionaries are accepting this deal.

The vague concepts based on the builders' wishful thinking (no, users really don't care about data sovereignty), combined with the tangible commercial success of centralized service providers, have jointly created the current predicament. Nowadays, it is almost impossible to find "clear optimists" in the cryptocurrency space, but the word "almost" leaves investment opportunities for those willing to stand firm at the frontier.