Bitcoin targets $71,000 as American businesses issue "very high" risk warnings.

Bitcoin faces conditions similar to the market bottom of 2022 as U.S. companies warn of "very high" risks ahead.

In the latest analysis, Charles Edwards, the founder of the Bitcoin and digital asset quantitative investment fund Capriole Investments, raised the question of when the U.S. will begin to implement a money printing policy to support the economy.

Pressure from higher-than-expected tariffs weighs on Bitcoin

Bitcoin has reacted significantly worse than the US stock market after President Donald Trump announced global retaliatory tariffs today (3/4).

The BTC/USD pair has fallen sharply by 8.5% during the day, while the S&P 500 index maintained a slight increase of 0.7% at the close of trading on Wall Street.

However, Edwards believes that the expectations of American businesses reflect unprecedented uncertainty, which has only appeared three times since the beginning of the 21st century.

"It is important to note this when tariffs exceed expectations. The Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey is currently showing expectations similar to those in the years 2000, 2008, and 2022," he shared on platform X.

The accompanying chart shows that the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey index (BOS) has fallen below 15 for the first time since the beginning of 2024. Notably, the end of 2022 was the bottom of the most recent bear market, when BTC/USD reversed at $15,600.

Survey of Fed Philadelphia's business outlook compared to S&P 500 | Source: Charles Edwards/XIn the market update on March 31, Edwards acknowledged that BOS data may not always provide accurate signals about market sentiment, but he emphasized that this index should not be overlooked.

"Although it does not guarantee future prospects, this index sometimes has false signals. This is data we have seen in very high-risk areas in 2000, 2008, and 2022, reminding us to maintain an open mindset," he wrote.

"Especially if the tariff war escalates beyond current expectations or corporate profit margins start to decline."

Important price levels to watch

For Bitcoin, an important price threshold to note after the impact of tariffs is $91,000. Edwards believes that the macroeconomic movements of the United States will be the determining factor for Bitcoin's technical trend in the near future.

"If all other factors remain unchanged, a daily closing above $91,000 will be a strong recovery signal," the update explains, accompanied by a weekly BTC/USD chart.

"If that is not achieved, a correction to the $71,000 range is likely to trigger a significant recovery."

1-day BTC/USD chart | Source: Capriole Investments## US liquidity trends and impact on Bitcoin

According to Bitcoin Magazine, a positive signal for cryptocurrencies and risky assets may emerge from the increase in global liquidity. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve (Fed) has begun to loosen tight financial policies, with predictions about the possibility of a return to quantitative easing (QE) becoming increasingly clear.

"How long until Powell's money printing machine starts operating?" Edwards raised the question.

Meanwhile, the M2 money supply is expected to experience a "large influx" — something that history shows often drives Bitcoin prices to rise significantly.

"The most important point (quan close chốt) is that a large M2 flow is coming. The exact timing is not the deciding factor," renowned analyst Colin Talks Crypto predicted in a series of posts on the X platform this week.

The comparison chart also suggests the potential for Bitcoin price recovery in early May, marking a potential opportunity for growth in the cryptocurrency market.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should conduct thorough research before making decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

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